EXCHANGE AND EXPORT ANALYSIS OF THE COMBINED STOCK PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA PERIOD 1986-2022
DOI:
10.54443/ijset.v2i8.194Published:
2023-07-16Downloads
Abstract
Many previous studies have proven that there is an influence between the exchange rate (the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar), Exports on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach using the Eviews 10 program. In this study, we look more deeply at the dynamics of long-term and short-term relationships for the variable exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar, Exports and the JCI. The research period starts from 1986 to 2022, during which time there are many global upheavals that have a significant impact on Indonesia, one of which is the weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar. In this study, through the ARDL model of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar, Exports and JCI are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. But not only in the long term, these three variables also have short-term relationship dynamics which have a fairly high speed of adjustment towards balance every year.
Keywords:
Composite Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate and Export.References
Agustina, & Renny. (2014). The Influence of Exports, Imports, Rupiah Exchange Rates, and Inflation Rates on Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves. 4, numbers 0.61–70.
Akbar, yogie alan. (2015). The Influence of Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Indonesia's Export Destination Country Index on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). 1–20.
Arifin, TM (2014). The Effect of Inflation, SBI Interest Rates, Exchange Rate Changes, and the Standard & Poor's 500 on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG).
Dewi, ER (2022). The Effect of Exports, Imports and GDP on Exchange Rates in Indonesia Using the Ardl Method. SENTRI: Journal of Scientific Research, 1(3), 17–34.
Ekananda, M. (2014). International Economics. Erlangga.
Jogiyanto, H. (2000). Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis (Second Edition). BPFE UGM.
Kuncoro, M. (2010). Fundamentals of Development Econometrics. UPP STIM YKPN.
Mankiw, NG, Euston, Q., & Wilson, P. (2016). Introduction to Macroeconomics. salemba four.
Munwar. (2020). The Effect of the World Composite Stock Price Index on the Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) for 2015-2018. Malikussaleh university.
Nurwahida, N., & Trilogy, U. (2020). The Role of Inflation, SBI Interest Rates, Dollar Exchange Rate In Influencing the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG).
Primary, USA (2020). Analysis of the Factors Influencing the JCI Movement on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the Period July 2017-June 2020. Syntax Idea, 2(10), 706–718.
Sihombing, DA (2018). The Influence of Exports, Imports, and Government Foreign Debt Payments on Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves 1980-2016. Economics Thesis Univ. USU, 53(9), 1689–1699.
Sinay, LJ, Tihurua, FRN, & Rahakbauw, DL (2018). Share Price Analysis Pt. Antam Tbk Based on Gold Prices and the Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the Dollar Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. Barekeng: Journal of Mathematical and Applied Sciences, 12(1), 53. https://doi.org/10.30598/vol12iss1pp53-62ar364
Sukirno, S. (2011). Introduction to Macroeconomic Theory (3rd Edition). PT. King of Grafindo Persada.
Sumantri, F., & Latifah, U. (2021). Analysis of the Influence of Marko Economy on the Composite Stock Price Index for the 2015-2019 Period. DIALEKTIKA : Journal of Economics and Social Sciences, 6(2), 11–21. https://doi.org/10.36636/dialektika.v6i2.617
Sunardi, N., Nurmillah, L., & Ula, R. (2017). The Effect of Bi Rate, Inflation and Exchange Rate on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). Journal of Securities, 1(2), 27–41.
Tandelilin, E. (2010). Portfolio and Investment Theory and Application (pert edition). canisius.
Zaretta, B., & Yovita, L. (2019). Stock Prices, Currency Exchange Rates and Reference Interest Rates in the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Model. Journal of Economics and Business Research, 4(1), 9–22.https://doi.org/10.33633/jpeb.v4i1.2318
Ramadhani, N., Murtala, M., Nailufar, F., & Yurina, Y. (2021). Analysis of Pepper Export Competitiveness Also Affects Foreign Exchange Reserves in 5 Main Pepper Exporting Countries (Case Studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil and India). Unimal Regional Journal of Economics, 3(3), 23.https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v3i3.3860
Humaira, P., Naz'aina, N., Yunina, Y., & Indrayani, I. (2022). The Influence of Stock Price Expensive Levels, Trading Volume Activity and Stock Returns on Stock Split Decisions in Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017-2020. Malikussaleh Journal of Accounting (JAM), 1(1), 15. https://doi.org/10.29103/jam.v1i1.7160
Juliansyah, H., Ganesha, Y., Ichsan, I., Nailufar, F., & Terfiadi, SY (2022). Effect of Export Import and Investment on Economic Growth in Indonesia (Vecm Analysis Method). Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics, 5(1), 16. https://doi.org/10.29103/jmpe.v5i1.8153
Yusra, M. (2019). The Effect of Trading Frequency, Trading Volume, Market Capitalization Value, Stock Prices, and Trading Day on Stock Returns in Cosmetic and Household Use Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 7(1), 65. https://doi.org/10.29103/jak.v7i1.1841
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Meutia Muadzah, Irwan Safwadi, Jariah Abubakar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
